Corpus Christi, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

458
FXUS64 KCRP 282258
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
558 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 551 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts through this week,
  afternoon heat indices of 100-108

- Low rain chances return Thursday, mainly along seabreeze over
  the Coastal Plains

- Saharan dust may cause hazy conditions at times today and Monday

- Hazardous marine conditions through Monday afternoon, with winds
  at least gusting frequently to 20 knots or greater

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

South Texas` weather will remain controlled under the southwestern
edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the east-central CONUS
through the work week. Rain-free conditions with max temperatures in
the 90s along with heat indices of 100-108 are expected through
Wednesday. Breezy conditions will also be in place this afternoon
and Monday especially, with south to southeasterly winds sustained
20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. The ridge begins to break apart and
weaken latter half of the week, allowing for shortwaves to ride the
southern edge and increase moisture across the area to above normal
with PWATs between 1.75-2.00". This increase in moisture and lesser
subsidence will allow for low shower and thunderstorm chances (10-
20%) to return along the seabreeze over the Coastal Plains Thursday
and Friday.

Model guidance is in good agreement Saturday with a mid to upper
level trough digging from Canada into the Central Plains. But
afterwards into early next week, there are discrepancies with the
progression of the synoptic flow east and south. The deterministic
run of ECMWF shows cut-off mid-level lows developing and leading to
increased rain chances, whereas the GFS keeps the main trough intact
and lower rain chances. However, looking at cluster analysis,
cluster 1 and 2 which contains majority of the GEFS (80%) and ENS
(56%) guidance favors more of a ridge over the northern Central
Plains to Midwest, whereas the more troughing solutions mainly
resides with the GEPS. Right now, it`s not looking promising we`ll
get favorable wet conditions but it`s still a week or longer out.

Dust aerosol optical thickness forecast from NASA/GMAO shows
noticeably higher dust concentration moving over South Texas today
through Monday. This may cause hazy conditions occasionally, reduce
air quality, and heighten allergies and respiratory issues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Another rinse and repeat TAF forecast. Breezy VFR conditions will
continue through this evening. Winds will begin to diminish
shortly after sunset (around 02Z), though southeast winds will
still be around 12 knots. Winds will further diminish to below 12
knots between 09Z-14Z, before becoming breezy once again. Brief
MVFR ceilings are expected from 09-14Z, so have included this in
TEMPO groups. Brief MVFR visibility will also be possible for ALI
and VCT during this time period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Currently, a strong (BF 6) south to southeasterly breeze over the
bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas, coexists with a
fresh (BF 5) breeze over the rest of the waters. Therefore a Small
Craft Advisory is in effect through Monday morning for the bays and
nearshore, with the offshore waters joining in starting this evening
as winds ramp up slightly stronger. Waters and bays south of Port
Aransas will likely experience Advisory level winds through Monday
afternoon. A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly breeze will
then persist Tuesday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  91  78  91 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          79  94  76  93 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            78 101  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             77  96  75  93 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          82  91  81  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           77  99  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  94  76  91 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       82  89  81  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-250.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ236-237-255.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...LS/77