Corpus Christi, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

541
FXUS64 KCRP 220456
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1056 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 127 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Key Messages:

- Increasing clouds and slightly warmer, but still pleasant
temperatures.

A weak easterly surface flow, and an increasing southerly low
level flow overhead tonight, will usher moisture and warmer
temperatures back across S TX. Models prog clouds to develop and
spread northward across the southern portions of the CWA late
tonight/early Sunday morning. There are differences between the
models on timing, and amount of cloud cover. Given the
uncertainty, for now have gone with deeper moisture along the Rio
Grande due to isentropic upglide developing. Isentropic upglide is
progged to be across the Coastal Bend as well, but will be
stronger along the Rio Grande as a 20-25KT low level jet develops
across that area. Although chances are low (5-15%), can not rule
out patchy drizzle and/or light fog toward early Sunday morning,
mainly along the Rio Grande due to isentropic upglide and across
the southern Coastal Bend due to proximity to higher dewpoints.

Temperatures tonight are expected to be a few degrees with lows in
the 40s north and 50s south. Highs in the 70s area wide on Sunday
and lows in the 50s and 60s Sunday night. Winds will be light and
generally east to southeast overnight with periods of variable wind
direction. A weak to moderate southeast flow will develop by Sunday
afternoon, becoming light Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 127 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Key Messages:

- Weak cold front Late Christmas Eve

- Low to medium (15-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
Christmas Eve into Early Christmas Day, mainly east, and again Thursday through
next weekend.

- Above normal temperatures much of the week

Several mid-level disturbances including a couple of back to back
lows that will swing across the Southern Plains next week are
progged to move across South Texas. Resulting in a couple of weak
cold fronts sliding southward across the region on Christmas Eve
into early Christmas Day and another one towards the end of the
week. The trend for precipitation Christmas Eve has increased and is
now a low (15-30%) chance generally west of I-37 with a moderate (30-
50%) chance east of I-37. During the latter half of the week another
disturbance increases shower chances again mainly across eastern
portions of the region. Currently, have run with the NBM as
deterministic models disagree with strength and timing of this
front. Regardless, expecting a low to moderate chance for
showers/thunderstorms for the second front but will continue to
monitor trends.

Generally expect afternoon highs to range in the 70s to the mid 80s
next week with slightly cooler temps on Christmas but only by a few
degrees. Overnight lows start out in the low 60s across the region
dropping to the low to mid 50s behind each front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Lower clouds are beginning to build in the RGV, toward the Rio
Grande Plains on satellite, as the moisture pools in the lower
levels. Winds look to remain constant enough (6-10 knots) to help
keep the chance of fog out of the region (best chances are <10%)
by Sunday morning. The CIGs are still the main concern as the
clouds in the RGV move up to the Rio Grande Plains/western Brush
Country (LRD/COT) by early Sunday morning. MVFR CIGs are about a
45% chance at LRD and COT between 11-14z. While the VCT, CRP, and
ALI are less than 20% chance for being less than 3000 feet. The
clouds should mix out by the early afternoon although moisture
will be in place to start the cycle again after 00z/Mon. Clouds do
look like they will be moving in as the chances for <3000 ft CIGs
rise from 5%, to 35% at CRP by 06z/Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 127 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

A weak to moderate east flow can be expected tonight, becoming
southeast Sunday. The flow may become moderate Sunday night across
the offshore waters. Weak to moderate onshore flow is generally
expected over the waters next week becoming variable briefly in
response to an approaching front Christmas Day. Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions are expected with the front. Shower
and thunderstorm chances increase to around 40-65% over portions
of the waters Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    54  73  61  79 /   0  10   0   0
Victoria          40  73  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            55  73  62  81 /   0  10   0   0
Alice             49  75  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          55  72  62  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           50  74  60  81 /   0  10   0   0
Kingsville        52  74  60  79 /   0  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       60  71  65  73 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...JSL/86