Corpus Christi, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

300
FXUS64 KCRP 081842
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
142 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

- Minor river flooding is forecast along the Guadalupe River near
  Bloomington early Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon.

- Low to medium (30-55%) rain chances this afternoon and
  Wednesday, then again this weekend.

- Low to moderate daily risk of heat-related impacts, especially
  into weekend. Please continue to take heat safety precautions.
  Visit weather.gov/heat for more resources.

- Plume of Saharan dust will likely cause hazy conditions and
  reductions in air quality Wednesday through Friday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

GOES satellite depicts a moisture axis consist of greater than
75th percentile PWAT values (>2.0") inland along the Texas Coast.
This moisture axis combined with an inverted mid-level trough has
set the stage for showers and thunderstorms to develop over the
Victoria Crossroads and portions of the inland Coastal Plains and
Brush Country this afternoon. Rain chances will quickly diminish
as we head into the nighttime hours but low to medium rain chances
will return once again Wednesday with the aid in surface heating
as the mid-level disturbance moves westward.

I`m not as confident in the forecast later this week, Thursday
through the weekend. NBM has very low (<20%) rain chances
Thursday through Friday; however, the latest 12Z models and
ensemble guidance are in good agreement with a mid-level low over
the Bay of Campeche moving northwest into eastern Mexico or Deep
South Texas. This feature combined with and reinforcing moisture,
makes me think there should be higher chances of precipitation.
The guidance may have sped up since the last package and NBM
containing older runs may be under-doing PoPs Thursday into
Friday and holding onto them for too long into Sunday when ridging
becomes to dominate. Another element to consider is the Saharan
dust plume expected to increase substantially Wednesday through
Thursday night: Would this suppress moisture? Help initiate more
cloud/ice condensation nuclei? Steepen lapse rates to aid in
convection? There`s a lot of uncertainty but elements we need to
watch out for in future runs. Low rain chances to begin next work
week but conditions aren`t as favorable with more ridging and PWAT
values dropping to around or below normal.

Heat risk will continue to run from minor to moderate into early
next week. Recent and current rainfall upstream of the Guadalupe
River has led to water levels exceeding action stage at Victoria
and expected to reach minor flood stage near Bloomington.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are spreading across the Victoria
Crossroads, associated with a moisture axis and mid-level
disturbances, directly impacting VCT. A few additional showers
and occasional thunderstorms are developing over the Coastal
Plains and Brush Country, potentially impacting ALI. This activity
is expected to continue to move inland and chances will decrease
tonight. Outside of direct shower/storm terminal impacts, VFR
conditions are expected through the forecast. We`ll have to keep a
close eye on MVFR ceilings during the typical early morning hours
of 09-15Z, but guidance has a low chance (10-30%) at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A gentle to moderate onshore breeze (BF 3-4) during the first half
of the week will increase to a more moderate (BF 4) breeze across
most of the waters by Thursday with periods of Fresh (BF 5) over
bays and nearshore waters late in the week. Low to moderate chances
(25-50%) for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday, with lower
chances (<30%) through Friday before increasing again this
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  93  76  93 /  10  30  10  10
Victoria          75  92  75  93 /  10  50  10  20
Laredo            77  98  76 100 /  10  20  20   0
Alice             74  95  74  96 /   0  30  20  10
Rockport          80  90  80  90 /  10  30  10  10
Cotulla           77  98  77  99 /  10  20  20  10
Kingsville        75  93  75  94 /   0  30   0  10
Navy Corpus       80  89  80  89 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...EMF/94